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J.I.S.M.

Joey's Index of Scrabble Mistakes

I have handicapping systems for everything of relevance, and Scrabble is no exception.


Using a grading scale where large mistakes count as 1.0, medium mistakes counts as 0.5, and small mistakes count as 0.2, we can reasonably assess how well a person is playing in very plain, relative terms. Using JISM, we can comfortably assess the odds someone will win a tournament. 



2350 - Perfect Player (does not exist)

2300 - BestBot (the best Scrabble computer engine, at woogles.io)

2250 - Nigel Richards (the greatest Scrabble human of all time)



Here are the mistakes/game estimates for each corresponding level of play.



2350 - 0.0

2300 - 0.2

2250 - 0.4

2200 - 0.7

2150 -  0.9

2100 - 1.1

2050 - 1.4

2000 - 1.6

1950 - 1.8

1900 - 2.1

1850 - 2.4

1800 - 2.7

1750 - 3.0

1700 - 3.2

1650 - 3.5





Odds Template

Here is a sample of player matchups that show the single game odds for the different skill gaps...there is a point spread followed by the win percentage.


2150 v :


2140 


-2.5      50.5%



2100


-9.5      52.5%



2050


-18.5      56%



2000


-29.5      61%



1950


-39.5       66%



1900


-50.5      71%



1850


-59.5      75%



1750


-80.5       83%



1650


-91.5       90%



1550


-104.5     94%



1400


-117.5      97%



1300


-127.5      98%



1200


-139.5      99%



1100


-153.5     <99%




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