I have handicapping systems for everything of relevance, and Scrabble is no exception.
Using a grading scale where large mistakes count as 1.0, medium mistakes counts as 0.5, and small mistakes count as 0.2, we can reasonably assess how well a person is playing in very plain, relative terms. Using JISM, we can comfortably assess the odds someone will win a tournament.
2350 - Perfect Player (does not exist)
2300 - BestBot (the best Scrabble computer engine, at woogles.io)
2250 - Nigel Richards (the greatest Scrabble human of all time)
Here are the mistakes/game estimates for each corresponding level of play.
2350 - 0.0
2300 - 0.2
2250 - 0.4
2200 - 0.7
2150 - 0.9
2100 - 1.1
2050 - 1.4
2000 - 1.6
1950 - 1.8
1900 - 2.1
1850 - 2.4
1800 - 2.7
1750 - 3.0
1700 - 3.2
1650 - 3.5
Here is a sample of player matchups that show the single game odds for the different skill gaps...there is a point spread followed by the win percentage.
2150 v :
2140
-2.5 50.5%
2100
-9.5 52.5%
2050
-18.5 56%
2000
-29.5 61%
1950
-39.5 66%
1900
-50.5 71%
1850
-59.5 75%
1750
-80.5 83%
1650
-91.5 90%
1550
-104.5 94%
1400
-117.5 97%
1300
-127.5 98%
1200
-139.5 99%
1100
-153.5 <99%
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